Electricity distribution 2055 - Forecasting an uncertain future
Looking beyond the next 10 years with our Asset Management Plan
Most electricity assets, like poles, lines and underground cables, last 40-50 years. That means the decisions we make today will affect the reliability of electricity supply for generations. While traditional planning focuses on 10-year horizons, we’ve extended our view to 30 years, looking ahead to 2055, with our 30-year Asset Management Plan (AMP).
This long-term approach helps us:
- Make better decisions about when and how to replace ageing equipment. Proactive replacement helps avoid unexpected interruptions.
- Ensure electricity remains reliable as more customers electrify homes, businesses and transport.
- Understand how changes in technology, policy and customer needs could affect the service we provide.
Building scenarios for different futures
Through our 30-year AMP, we’ve created a range of scenarios to see how future energy use might evolve, including rapid adoption of electric vehicles, increased renewable energy uptake and ongoing reliance on gas. These scenarios help us plan for smarter investment strategies that balance reliability, cost and sustainability.
Investing in a reliable and future-ready network
Our 30-year planning work shows that:
- Capex (capital investment) will increase as we renew ageing assets and expand capacity to meet electrification demand. Cable replacement, in particular, will become a major focus alongside ongoing overhead network upgrades.
- Opex (operational costs) is expected to grow alongside Capex, reflecting the cost of maintaining and operating a modern, safe, and reliable network.
- Timing driven by demand scenarios – in high-growth scenarios, electrification investments are expected to peak in the 2030s. In slower growth scenarios, renewals and upgrades will be critical in the 2040s.
By taking a long-term view, scenario-based approach, we can optimise when and how we invest, helping to balance reliability, affordability and sustainability for our customers.
What this means for our customers
- Continued reliable electricity – fewer outages and more reliable infrastructure.
- Increased affordability – careful investment planning and risk management helps manage costs effectively.
- Our network is future-proofed – homes and businesses can electrify, generate power, or adopt new technologies without worrying about network limitations.
Working together
The 30-year AMP isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about being prepared for it. It complements our existing planning processes and helps shape near-term investment priorities.
The 10-year regulated AMP still exists and is updated every three years. However, with the 30-year AMP, the primary goal has been to develop greater strategic foresight, to better inform our shorter-term plans and ensure investment decisions today support the outcomes customers will need tomorrow.
Together, these two plans allow us to stay agile and forward-thinking, using the 10-year AMP to deliver practical, immediate improvements, while the 30-year AMP helps guide where and when those investments should happen over the long term.
By sharing our planning work and seeking feedback, we make sure your needs are at the centre of every decision, ensuring electricity remains reliable and sustainable for decades to come.